Coldheartedtruth

So Barack Obama is inviting Congressional Democrats and Congressional Republicans to a media covered discussion on health care reform. What Obama claims to want to achieve is for everyone to sit down, exchange ideas, and move forward with the best overall solutions. Call me skeptical, but this appears to be nothing more than political theater. Lights, camera, action!

First of all, many Congressional Democrats have already expressed fairly strongly that they are not ready to rework the 2700 page bill that they have been working on for the past several months. Many have suggested that the bipartisan idea has already been tried and failed. Secondly, the statements being made by others within the Administration have hinted that the President may be looking at this as a final chance to gain GOP support prior to moving forward with other options of passing the bill. (IE reconciliation, passing the Senate Bill as is, a combination of the two).

Meanwhile, the GOP is right now is at least publicly taking the President at his word. They are suggesting that they welcome to a bipartisan conversation and the chance to "start over from scratch" on health care reform. This, too, is simply jockeying for position, as they know all too well that neither the congressional Democrats or the President really wants to "start over". The Democrats are too close to the finish line to turn around and go back to the start. So the GOP leadership is in fact attempting to set the stage for their own spin on the "political theater".

My gut call is this. Obama still believes that public opposition to the bill is still just a matter of explanation. That once the public hears what wonderful ideas that the President and the Democrats have that they will come on board. Moreover, once the public realized how lacking the Republicans are with real ideas, that it be be clear that the GOP is simply obstructing and should be held accountable.

Meanwhile, the GOP believes that the President has no concrete plans to actually start over with a bipartisan solution. They are probably expecting that he will talk a good game, maybe even offer to make the 2700 pages, 2800 pages... fresh from new GOP ideas.. but will not actually listen to the concerns that the GOP (and the general public) has with the existing 2700 pages. So they are looking to play the event as the President not really living up to his word.

Bottom line: The President has turned out to be a much better politician than administrator. But lately even his political instincts have been wrong, in large part because he overestimates his own personal appeal. This is certainly an opportunity that will test his personal appeal. Will this be a good political move for the President, or just the next big misstep. Stay tuned... Lights, camera, action!

So the big post SOTU address bounce for President Obama appears to be gone. The daily tracking poll for Rasmussen shows the President's approval back down at 44%, the daily tracking poll for Gallup is at 49%, and the Fox News poll that came out this week showed the President's approval at 46%. More to the point, the Rasmussen tracking polls shows Obama's strong disapproval number at the all time high of 43% of all likely voters.

Scott Rasmussen was quick to point out that the SOTU address (and the televised meeting with the GOP congress folks) seemed to bolster his "base" while further alienating conservatives and moderates. What Rasmussen implied (and the numbers are now reflecting that) that a bounce from your supporters usually is fleeting, but the moderates you turn off usually stay turned off.

I would further argue that what we are seeing is the fundamental weakness in President Obama. He, more than any President in my lifetime is largely dependent on his ability to rally people behind his words. Hope and change are simply not the sort of policy beliefs that keep your faithful motivated. This sort of campaign worked well to get Obama elected, but falls far short of what is necessary to remain popular as a President.

The bigger problem here is the main reason that Obama is dependent on his ability to rally people in speeches is because his actual "agenda" is largely unpopular. Without an almost constant barrage from the President trying to "remind" his voters why they are supporting him and his agenda... people tend to fall right back to their personal opposition to the large government programs, tax increases, and high deficits that are being pushed by the President and his Party.

Of course there is an inherent point of diminishing returns as well. Speeches become diluted. You can only say the same things over and over for so long before even your biggest supporters get bored. Eventually they will expect more. They will expect leadership. They will expect accomplishment. I would guess that every time he gives a speech that motivates much of his base, there are one or two who roll their eyes and ask themselves if he is going to do something other than talk.