Coldheartedtruth

New claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, government data showed on Thursday, underscoring a weak labor market and the fragile economic recovery

Look folks... who ever these so called economic analysts are, the truth is that they are almost always wrong. Not sure I recall the last time they "expected" a bad economic report of any sort.

Oh wait. I guess I do. That was back prior to Obama becoming President.

So recently I've been spending a lot of time reading anything and everything that has to do with the economy and economic theory... especially the various economic journalist who toss around their weekly or bi-weekly columns. I've noticed a trend. With the exception of the occasional attempts to show why supply side economics have failed, Keynsian disciples rarely talk in terms of actual historical precedent. Rather they talk in terms of theory, studies, and economic "projections". A text books states this, some economic think tank determined this, or some congressional study shows this.

The hard part about it is that much of that is subjective... and not just a "little" subjective either. You can have wide range of disagreements regarding (for instance) how much government spending stimulates the economy short term or how much borrowing that same money to spend harms the economy long term. Likewise you have people who will claim that tax cuts gives you very little return on the investment all the way up to people who believe that tax cuts not only stimulate the economy but also grow revenue.

The problem with this is if you start with a hard theory that you believe is right, and you back it up with other theoretical calculations based on that theory... you are in essence bending reality around the "constant" that is the theory. You can never be wrong about the economic theory... you can only be wrong about the conditions of the situation.

In other words, when our Government has decided to raise Government spending to stimulate the economy and it has failed to do so (which has happened more than once in our history)... it doesn't prove anything other than the economic situation was worse than originally projected and/or the spending was not aggressive enough. Likewise, when we have instead cut taxes and in doing so stimulated the economy (as we have several times historically) it isn't because cutting taxes actually works, it's because the economy wasn't as bad as it seemed at the time.

Now it certainly isn't as simple as cutting taxes is good, spending money is bad. But it certainly is harder to claim the opposite when there is no historical evidence to back up the claim.

What can be more frustrating is a lack of acknowledgment that there "is" a lack of historical evidence or that it even matters? Because the obvious danger is we simply pull ourselves into this infinite loop. We continue down the path of "spending" to stimulate and blaming the lack of results on the economy being worse than originally thought (which by implication is blaming the economic principles prior). The more we spend and fail, the more these same Keynsian disciples see it as an indictment of the prior "failed" tax cut policies which they blame for putting the economy into such a mess to begin with. Because, through their eyes, the only reason their policies have not been more successful is because the previous policies were so unsuccessful that they were not even aware of how bad things were.

But again, the facts of the matter state something else. While the Obama administration keeps telling us that they inherited the worst economy since the great depression, the reality is that statistically it's simply not the case. In terms of GDP slippage, unemployment, and inflation... our economy was much worse off in the late 70s and early 80's. One could even argue that with the collapse of NASDAQ and the economic turmoil surrounding 9/11 that we had the very real possibility of an economic downturn of similar proportions less than 10 years ago.

The reality is that it really hasn't been the depth of the recession that has been the problem... it's that the recovery has been so slow. As much as the left complained about the "jobless" recovery that the Bush administration led, what we are seeing right now is much, much worse. At some point, these Keynsian disciples are going to need to take ownership of the situation and admit that all of their incorrect projections cannot continue to be blamed on everything else. They are going to need to see reality for what it is, or we are all in big trouble.

Interesting... the Vikings could have (with Farve) brought back all 22 starters from a team that was perhaps one play from the Superbowl last year? They would have had a much healthier offensive line, a more mature receiving corps, and still had AP.

Now it looks like they will settle on bringing back 21 of 22 starters and possibly opening the season with T-Jack at starting QB... unless of course Childress can talk Fran Tarkenton out of retirement...

UPDATE: The numerous reports appear to be that Visanthe Shiancoe had told reporters that other Vikings had gotten text messages from him saying he was retiring... although the Minnesota tight end did not "himself" receive a message. None of Farve's closest friends on the team said that they had gotten a text, nor had the coach or owner heard from him.

Today... he told ESPN reporters that he plans to play if his ankle is healthy enough for him to do so...

If you put a gun to my head and asked me for a prognostication... I would say you should look for Farve to join the team either in the late preseason or early regular season...

So two beggers are having a discussion. One says he had raised about $40.00 that day begging on the street corner. The other says he has raised well over $500 that same day.

The unsuccessful begger asks... "how do you do it"?

The successful begger asks to see the other begger's sign which reads:

"War Vet, Homeless, Appreciate any help"

Well that's your problem says the successful begger... look at my sign:

"Give me $10 and I will leave the country"

So the T-Wolves go into the draft with 5 picks (including the 4th and the 16th) and the willingness to move two of their starters from last year. One might think they could pick up at least two "pieces of the puzzle".

Instead T-Wolves GM David Kahn trades a starter and the 16th pick to the Portland Trailblazers for a career back up player with a history of ankle injuries (and which of these two GMs got fired yesterday?) Then they move "down" to 30 where they pick another player who plays the same position as the other two guys they picked up earlier.

This, only one year after they drafted 4 point guards and signed another in free agency. I will say one thing about Kahn. He keeps everyone scratching their heads...

I watched bits and pieces of the game... seemed like every time I turned it on I saw a Laker on the free throw line. One time I turned the channel to the game and they were "reviewing" whether or not a Kobe Bryant shot was a 2 or 3 pointer. I couldn't figure out why they were reviewing it. The replay clearly showed no contact (in fact I think it was Ray Allen who actually was leaning away from him when he shot) - and he missed? But apparently a foul was called and Kobe ended up shooting three free throws.

Now I am not either a Celtic fan or a Laker fan. In fact, I really don't care for either team. But it certainly seemed like the game was decided at the free throw line - 37 vs 17 was the final tally... with 16 Laker points in the fourth quarter coming from the line.

It's become almost a given that when certain players make a hard drive to the basket, it will result in a foul call pretty much every time. But lord forbid the officials ever call a double dribble, travel, or carry, which literally seems to happen at least as often as a legitimate foul.

It wasn't always that way and it isn't that way in most sports. Back during the Bird/Johnson days, the games were won from the floor. Big shot after big shot. Never did you see the phantom calls that allowed Bird or Magic to get free points from the line. Likewise... you almost have to kill someone during the Stanley Cup Playoffs to end up in the Penalty box... as Hockey officials decide the best way to find out who is best is to "let em play".

Basketball needs to figure that out again... let em play.