Coldheartedtruth

Missouri today became the final jurisdiction for which a winner was declared in the presidential race, awarding its 11 electoral votes to John McCain. Barring any actions by unfaithful or confused electors the Electoral College vote should be 365-173 in favor of Barack Obama.

We won't know the final tally on the popular vote for some time as a number of states, including Missouri, have yet to certify their results. Thus far 66.88 million votes have been recorded for Obama to 58.34 million for McCain, according to CNN's vote count. That works out to a probable 53%-46% victory for Obama after third party votes are added in.

Also, McCain's victory in Missouri means Obama is the first Democrat ever to capture the White House without winning Missouri. Missouri is the fifth state this decade to have its streak of always voting for a particular party when it won broken, joining Vermont and Illinois (2000), New Hampshire (2004), and Arkansas (2008). This leaves Ohio as the only state to vote for every winning Republican candidate and Alaska and Hawaii as the only other states to always vote for a winner of a particular party (Republican and Democratic, respectively) since they became states. The District of Columbia, which has voted Democratic in every election since it was awarded voting rights in the Electoral College, has naturally voted for every victorious Democrat since that time.

Ohio also replaces Missouri as the state which has successfully voted for the winner in the most consecutive elections, having done so now for 12 straight elections.

11:10 EST - Obama 284, McCain 154
It's all over but the final score.

And with that I'm out of here, heading for the Rick Lass election night party and some pints of the best beer in Santa Fe.

10:25 EST - Obama 207, McCain 146
Obama will go over the top in 35 minutes when polls close in California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii.

9:45 EST - Obama 200, McCain 101

8:25 - Updated the map. Obama 103, McCain 34 as of about 8:05 EST.

7:40 EST - Updated the map. McCain 8, Obama 3.

6:40 EST - The first statewide poll closings occur in about 20 minutes, and we'll almost certainly have some states called right away. Consider this an open thread for election results.

Today's polling releases resulted in four changes on the chart. Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia each move one column in McCain's favor while Missouri moves one column in Obama's favor. Polling for all four states is included below the fold.

As the title states, this will be the final chart update, even if polls released between now and tomorrow morning might result in additional rating changes.

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Missouri and North Carolina are my two closest states right now. North Carolina is pretty much dead even (-0.04) according to my spreadsheet formula and Missouri shows McCain up but still losing based on the huge national trends against him. Some other states (like Montana and North Dakota) which I don't track may end up being closer than many I did track.

I haven't decided if these are my "final" results quite yet. Certainly Missouri and/or North Carolina could move before tomorrow. My gut call may also be different than the formula on some of these states. Certainly my gut right now says that Missouri and North Carolina will both go McCain and with some of the later polling trending McCain's way in Florida and Ohio it would be a legitimate call either way there. Hey, even Minnesota may be closing if SUSA is anywhere's near correct with their 3 point lead.

I may not even make any calls... but just let the spreadsheet speak for itself. How objective would that be? A junkie prognosticator such as me relying solely on numbers and not on my gut?

* Projections are based on a combination of state polling, past results, and the projected national vote breakdown.

Today, for the first time in a long time, most of the movement is towards McCain. Both Pennsylvania and Missouri move one category to the right. Meanwhile Arkansas, which still has a provisional rating as only ARG and Rasmussen have polled it to date, moves one column to the left based on the latest ARG poll. Polling for all three states is below the fold.

It's been noted frequently that no Republican has ever been elected president without winning Ohio. It's also true that no Democrat has ever been elected president without carrying Missouri and (since it became a state) Arkansas. At the moment Obama leads in Ohio and McCain leads in both Missouri and Arkansas. The chances are good that at least one of those historical electoral streaks will end this year.

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