I had it exactly right on the Sunday before the election, but unfortunately the state polling in Wisconsin
        started to move toward Bush, and on monday night Wisconsin switched from Kerry to Bush, thus creating my only
        Error. Most of the states came in pretty close to the actual result. I am listing the 14 states that I had still
        showed as battleground states.

			State	Projected	Total*	Final	Final
	Battleground	ECV	Polling	Winner	Formula	Result	difference	Correct?
	New Mexico	5	(1.00)	Bush	(1.38)	(1.10)	0.28	Yes
	Iowa	7	(0.80)	Bush	(1.23)	(0.90)	0.33	Yes
	Michigan	17	2.65	Kerry	3.77	3.40	0.37	Yes
	Minnesota	10	2.42	Kerry	2.64	3.40	0.76	Yes
	Ohio	20	2.30	Bush	3.43	2.50	0.93	Yes
	Arkansas	6	4.52	Bush	10.77	9.80	0.97	Yes
	Pennsylvania	21	1.14	Kerry	3.21	2.20	1.01	Yes
	Wisconsin	10	(0.79)	Bush	(0.67)	0.40	1.07	No
	Florida	27	2.06	Bush	3.09	5.00	1.91	Yes
	New Hampshire	4	(2.80)	Kerry	(3.42)	(1.40)	2.02	Yes
	Oregon	7	5.20	Kerry	6.47	3.90	2.57	Yes
	West Virginia	5	5.10	Bush	10.13	12.90	2.77	Yes
	Colorado	9	5.18	Bush	9.16	5.60	3.56	Yes
	Nevada	5	4.45	Bush	9.13	2.60	6.53	Yes

        * The formula takes into consideration not only state and national polling results, but also other factors
        such as the 2000 election results, Pew affiliation polling, and the state's current unemployment situation.
        Obviously the State Polling is given the greatest weight. National head to head and Bush approvals (+/-50%)
        are also given heavy consideration. The formula does not take into consideration any of my own personal bias.

        States in Blue or Red are states that have changed from one party or the other since 2000.
        The plus or minus of the state polling is in relation to how the state turned out in 2000.
        IE: if a state such as New Hampshire has change from Bush to Kerry (thus Blue) the negative state polling number
        is actually negative for Bush rather than Kerry.
        

Other Election Sites         Federal Review         Dales' EC Breakdown         Election Projection 2004         Race 2004.net

Bush  Kerry  Date        216    322    5/30        216    322    6/6        227    311    6/13        279    259    6/20        274    264    6/27        274    264    7/4        274    264    7/11        227    311    7/18

Bush  Kerry  Date        247    291    7/25        227    311    8/1        222    316    8/8        222    316    8/15        222    316    8/22        247    291    8/29        294    244    9/5        291    247    9/12

Bush  Kerry  Date        295    243    9/19        310    228    9/26        310    228    10/3        295    243    10/10        295    243    10/27        281    257    10/24        286    252    10/31        296    252    Final

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